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Back Dasar Analisa Teknikal Analisa Teknikal

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Analisa Teknikal

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Mari kita mulai dengan asumsi yang mendasari analisa teknikal. Dalam hal ini saya akan mengambil sebuah pendekatan ekstrim supaya Anda dapat memahami bagaimana sebuah analisa teknikal dipakai dalam memperoleh gain pada forex trading. Tentu saja dalam prakteknya tidaklah demikian. Anda dapat memadukan kedua analisa (fundamental dan teknikal) guna memperoleh sistem trading yang terbaik bagi Anda.

Para chartist (pihak yang melakukan analisa teknikal), percaya bahwa mereka dapat mengetahui pola-pola pergerakan harga kurs di masa mendatang dengan berdasarkan pada observasi pergerakan kurs di masa lalu. Singkatnya mereka memegang jargon ini: “History always repeats it self.” Filosofi ini tentu saja bertentangan dengan para fundamentalis dimana keputusan investasi atas nilai suatu mata uang didasarkan pada faktor fundamental ekonomi, politik dan moneter negara yang bersangkutan.

Senjata utama para analis teknikal adalah grafik (chart – itulah mengapa mereka disebut chartist). Melalui chart inilah mereka dapat melihat trend yang sedang berlangsung, rentang waktu trend, volume transaksi dan level-level psikologis yang ada. Jika Anda telah mampu mengetahui 4 hal tersebut, tentu saja keuntungan besar segera akan mengalir deras ke kocek Anda. Mari saya ulang:

1. Trend

2. Volume transaksi

3. Level-level psikologis (support dan resistance)

4. Periode waktu yang terjadi.

Yup, itu saja. Memang tujuan para chartist adalah memprediksikan ke empat hal ini. Namun sekarang yang menjadi pertanyaan adalah seberapa akurat kemampuan kita memprediksi harga? Nah itulah yang memang harus terus menerus di asah tiap-tiap hari. Tidak ada satu pun metode yang sempurna baik fundamental maupun teknikal. Pengalaman dan diri sendiri memegang peranan sentral disini.

Apakah analisa teknikal memiliki kelemahan?? Tentu saja. Seperti saya katakan barusan, tidak ada yang sempurna. Mari saya sarikan kelemahan kedua analisa ini dalam bentuk tabel:

Nah itu saja untuk perkenalan pada analisa teknikal. Pada bagian berikutnya kita langsung saja berkenalan dengan grafik. Pasti Anda tidak menginginkan terlalu banyak informasi yang akhirnya malah membuat Anda pusing bukan?

Kelemahan pada Analisa
Fundamental
Kelemahan pada Analisa Teknikal
Butuh waktu untuk memperoleh informasi. Memerlukan banyak data untuk menunjang akuratnya prediksi.
Seringkali bersifat subyektif karena melibatkan banyak pendapat orang.

Lebih cocok diterapkan pada long
term period trading.

Sulit diterapkan pada pasar yang tidak efisien.
Sangat bergantung pada kemampuan chartist. Tiap chartist memiliki metode yang berlainan dan masing-masing belum tentu cocok diterapkan satu sama lain.

 

Tips
Harga pasar ini ditentukan oleh sikap para trader yang bertransaksi didalamnya. Ini berarti bahwa pasar (price trends) digerakan oleh psikologi tradernya (serakah, ketakutan, harapan, putus asa,dll). Al Goldman, seorang ahli strategi pasar mengatakan “Ninety percent of the market is mood and ten percent fundamentals.” Nah, Technical Analysis mempelajari psikologi pasar ini yang digambarkan berupa grafik. Karena sifat dasar manusia tidak berubah, maka pola yang tergambar dalam grafik itu berulang. (History Repeats Itself), juga setiap market punya sifat/karakter tersendiri.

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