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Cross Hedging - belajarinvestasi.com

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Back Manajemen Resiko Cross Hedging

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Cross Hedging

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Hedging (Lindung Nilai) berarti kita membuka dua posisi yang berlawanan sehingga meskipun harga naik atau turun nilai floating tetap sama

Hedging atau Locking istilah ini diambil karena saat kita menggunakan tekhnik ini posisi kita terkunci sehingga nilai keuntungan dan kerugian selalu bergerak beriringan.

Secara logika, hedging ini sebenarnya tidak diperbolehkan karena berarti kita bermain dengan diri kita sendiri. coba bayangkan pada saat yang sama anda melakukan posisi buy 1 lot pada pasangan GBP/USD dan posisi sell 1 lot pada pasangan GBP/USD. hal ini berarti profit anda di salah satu posisi merupakan kerugian anda pada posisi yang lain. Adapun partner dari belajar forex tidak memperbolehkan hedging. apabila anda melakukan posisi buy 1 lot pada pasangan GBP/USD dan kemudian posisi sell 1 lot pada pasangan GBP/USD, maka hal ini berarti anda menutup posisi anda sendiri.

Berbeda dengan hedging,
CROSS HEDGING
berarti kita membuka dua posisi yang berlawanan terhadap pasangan mata uang yang berbeda akan tetapi masih serumpun. Maksud serumpun di sini adalah trend pergerakan dari kedua pasangan mata uang cenderung sama seperti: GBP/USD dengan EUR/USD ; AUD/USD dengan NZD/USD.

 

crosshedgingovr.gif
Gambar 1 Tampilan Chart GBP/USD & EUR/USD

Gambar di atas merupakan grafik EUR/USD dengan periode 1 jam (sebelah atas) dan GBP/USD dengan periode 1 jam (sebelah bawah). Sesuai dengan teori yang telah dipaparkan, pergerakan EUR/USD dan GBP/USD cenderung sama.

 

crosshedginggpb.gif
Gambar 2 Tampilan Ilustrasi GBP/USD
crosshedgingeur.gif
Gambar 3 Tampilan Ilustrasi EUR/USD


Contoh Kasus

Mr.X memprediksi harga GBP/USD akan naik maka dia membuka posisi Buy dengan harapan harga akan naik.

Oops, ternyata harga turun .......

Mr. X kembali menganalisa dan kesimpulannya: USD memang menguat tapi akan melemah kembali (Harga GBP/USD memang akan turun tapi akan naik kembali)

Dia memutuskan .......

1. Menahan posisi Buy GBP/USDnya (tidak ditutup)
2. Membuka posisi baru Sell EUR/USD (supaya mendapatkan keuntungan saat EUR/USD turun)

Nah perhatikan apa yang terjadi

Misalnya dia membeli 1 lot GBP/USD saat harga 1.9930 dan saat ini harga nya 1.9927, sehingga kerugian 3 point (1.9927 - 1.9930)

Kemudian saat itu juga dia membuka posisi Sell 1 lot EUR/USD saat harga 1.5888.

Nah perhatikan kalau harga GBP/USD bergerak ke 1.9925 dan harga EUR/USD bergerak ke 1.5900

1. Posisi Buy GBP/USD: 1.9925 - 1.9930 = -5 point (rugi)
2. Posisi Sell EUR/USD: 1.5900 - 1.5888 = 2 point (laba)
3. TOTAL Rugi Laba: -5 + 2 = -3point

Bagaimana kalau harga GBP/USD bergerak ke 1.9934 dan harga EUR/USD bergerak ke 1.5881

1. Posisi Buy GBP/USD: 1.9934 - 1.9930 = 4 point (laba)
2. Posisi Sell EUR/USD: 1.5881 - 1.5888 = -7 point (rugi)
3. TOTAL Rugi Laba: 4 + (-7) = -3point

Kesimpulannya: karena arah GBP/USD dan EUR/USD cenderung sama, maka total rugi laba juga akan cenderung berada di -3 point

Kita lanjutkan ke kisah kita kembali nah kemudian harga EUR/USD bergerak ke 1.5880 maka Mr. X segera menutup posisi Sell EUR/USDnya yang dibuka dengan harga 1.5888 sehingga ia profit 8 point

Dan setelah beberapa saat

Sesuai dengan prediksi Mr. X harga GBP/USD kembali naik sampai 1.9936, maka dia menutup posisi Buynya yang dibuka pada harga 1.9930 sehingga ia profit 6 point.

Tips untuk Anda:

1. Cross hedging dapat digunakan untuk menganalisa dan menghasilkan profit seperti contoh kasus di atas
2. Pergerakan pasangan mata uang yang serumpun tidak selalu searah. Terkadang GBP/USD bergerak naik, namun EUR/USD bergerak turun. Hal ini mungkin terjadi apabila mata uang GBP yang mengalami penguatan dan EUR mengalami penurunan.
3. Pergerakan pasangan mata uang yang serumpun tidak selalu identik. Artinya apabila GPB/USD menguat 5 point, tidak berarti bahwa EUR/USD juga pasti menguat sebanyak 5 point.

Kelemahan Cross hedging:

1. Mata uang yang serumpun tidak selalu searah.
2. Kalaupun searah tidak identik. Berikut ini contohnya, misalkan hari ini GBP/USD menguat sebesar 100 poin, EUR/USD juga menguat, tetapi hanya 50 poin. Artinya keduanya sama-sama menguat tapi tidak identik sama (100 poin).

 

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