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Back Manajemen Resiko Hedging atau Locking

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Hedging atau Locking

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Hedge berarti kita membuka dua posisi yang berlawanan sehingga meskipun harga naik atau turun nilai floating tetap sama

Hedging atau Locking istilah ini diambil karena saat kita
menggunakan tekhnik ini posisi kita terkunci sehingga
nilai keuntungan dan kerugian selalu bergerak beriringan.

Contoh Kasus

Mr.X memprediksi harga akan naik maka
dia membuka posisi Buy dengan harapan
harga akan naik.

Oops, ternyata harga turun .......

Mr. X kembali menganalisa dan kesimpulannya:
Harga memang akan turun tapi akan naik kembali

Dia memutuskan .......

1. Menahan posisi Buy nya (tidak ditutup)
2. Membuka posisi baru Sell
(supaya mendapatkan keuntungan saat
harga yang sedang turun sekarang)

Nah perhatikan apa yang terjadi

Misalnya dia membeli 1 lot saat harga 30
dan saat ini harga nya 27, sehingga kerugian 3 point (27 - 30)

Kemudian saat itu juga dia membuka posisi Sell 1 lot
di harga 27.

nah perhatikan kalau harga bergerak ke 25
1. Posisi Buy : 25 - 30 = -5 point (rugi)
2. Posisi Sell : 27 - 25 = 2 point (laba)
3. TOTAL Rugi Laba: -5 + 2 = -3point

bagaimana kalau harga bergerak ke 34
1. Posisi Buy : 34 - 30 = 4 point (laba)
2. Posisi Sell : 27 - 34 = -7 point (rugi)
3. TOTAL Rugi Laba: 4 + (-7) = -3point

kesimpulannya kemanapun harga bergerak
nilai TOTAL Rugi Laba tetap SAMA : -3 point
ini lah disebut Locking

Kita lanjutkan ke kisah kita kembali
nah kemudian harga bergerak ke 20
maka Mr. X segera menutup posisi Sellnya
yang dibuka dengan harga 27 sehingga ia profit 7 point

Dan kemudian sesuai dengan prediksi Mr. X
harga kembali naik sampai 36, maka dia menutup
posisi Buynya yang dibuka pada harga 30 sehingga ia profit 6 point.

Contoh Detail

= BUKA POSISI BUY =
Buy GBP (NEW): 1.8900 ( 5 lot )
Prediksi GBP naik ke 1.9000

Ternyata Harga Bergerak Turun =
= BUKA POSISI SELL BARU =
Sell (NEW): 1.8880 ( 5 lot )

= HARGA TERUS TURUN =
= TUTUP POSISI SELL - PROFIT =
Buy (LIQ): 1.8850 ( 5 lot )


= HARGA KEMBALI NAIK =
= TUTUP POSISI BUY - PROFIT =
Sell GBP (LIQ): 1.8950 ( 5 lot )


Pip Value : 9.200

Posisi I
Laba = 5 x [ ((1.8950 - 1.8900) x 9200) - 50.000]
= 5 x [ (50 x 9.200) - 50.000]
= 5 x Rp 410.000,-

Laba dari Lock I = Rp 2.050.000,-


Posisi II
Laba = 5 x [ ((1.8880 - 1.8850) x 9200) - 50.000]
= 5 x [ (30 x 9.200) - 50.000]
= 5 x Rp 226.000,-

Laba dari Lock II = Rp 1.130.000,-

Laba Hasil Locking = Rp 2.050.000 + Rp Rp 1.130.000 = Rp 3.180.000,-

 

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